ANALISIS REGRESI PROBIT BIVARIAT TERHADAP FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PRODUKSI PADI DAN LUAS PANEN DI KABUPATEN LOMBOK TIMUR TAHUN 2024

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays an important role in Indonesia’s economy, particularly as a provider of staple food, employment opportunities, and a source of livelihood for rural communities. Rice is the main commodity; therefore, increasing production and harvested area has become a strategic focus of national agricultural development. This study aims to analyze the effect of land area (LL) and rainfall (CH) on rice production and harvested area in East Lombok Regency in 2024 using a bivariate probit regression approach. Rice production and harvested area data were converted into binary variables based on the median values, namely PP_bin (high/low rice production) and LP_bin (large/small harvested area). Parameter estimation was conducted using the Maximum Likelihood method, with the Wald test applied for partial testing and the Likelihood Ratio Test for simultaneous testing. The results indicate that LL has a positive effect on the response variable PP_bin, where an increase in land area increases the likelihood of higher rice production. The Wald test confirms that LL is significant for PP_bin with a p-value of 0.0457 (<0.05), meaning that the wider the land area available, the greater the probability of achieving high rice production.